Tuesday, May 7, 2013

What Are The Odds ?

Some people are just board game playing kinds of people.  That very much describes my wife and I (and most of our truly good friends).  Of the millions of ways you can spend time as a couple or in small groups, playing a board game is one of the best.

A few months ago we came into possession of a Clue: Master Detective board game, which we found out later is out of print.  This makes it a rarity in and of itself, but what makes it more special is that my wife loves this game!  I did not know this, so when I picked it up from my parents (who were just clearing some things they haven't used in years) I had no idea that it would make my wife so happy to have.

So after sitting on our game shelf for a while, we finally pulled the game down to play it (when our friends - Aaron and Britney - stayed with us for a few nights).  We must have played about 10-12 rounds of the game over two evenings and here is the really weird thing ... in EVERY single game we played, the eventual "murderer" was either Aaron's character piece or mine.

For a little context, in Master Detective there are 10 different possible murder suspects.  So there was only a 40% chance in any ONE game that the murderer would be one of our 4 characters ... but it was Aaron or I every single time!

What is even weirder is that we played the game another 3-4 times with some other combinations of people (Jeremy, Jordan and Erin, just Aaron and Karen and I) ... and only ONCE was the murderer NOT one of our characters' playing pieces.  That makes about 14 of 15 times which is statistically almost impossible (50%, 40%, or 30% chance in just one game ... but over all these games it is just unexplainable).

Song Of The Day:
I'm as big a Phil Collins fan as Karen is a Clue Master Detective fan.  His song "Against All Odds" is a great tune and perfectly fits with this blog post subject.  Some of the lines in the song are eerily fitting "you're the only one who really knew me at all" and "there's nothing left here to remind me, just the memory of your face" are two quick examples.


1 comment:

  1. for one of the 4 players to be the murderer for 12 games in a row (with 10 suspects total) there is a 1 in 59,604 chance. This means that if you play 59,604 games in a row, somewhere in that sequence you would expect to find 12 games in a row that has one of the 4 players being the murderer.

    For only 2 players of the 10 to be the murderer for 12 games in a row the odds jump to 1 in 244,140,625 chance.

    I think you should have bought lottery tickets instead of playing the game that night..... Just sayin'...